Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation

BMJ. 2024 Jan 8:384:e074819. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2023-074819.

Abstract

Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance.

MeSH terms

  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Prognosis