1 Institute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK r.d.riley@bham.ac.uk.
2 National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Birmingham Biomedical Research Centre, Birmingham, UK.
3 Institute of Applied Health Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK.
4 Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
5 Department of Development and Regeneration, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
6 Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, Netherlands.
7 Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology, and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.