Immune Checkpoint Blockade (ICB) has revolutionized cancer treatment, however mechanisms determining patient response remain poorly understood. Here we used machine learning to predict ICB response from germline and somatic biomarkers and interpreted the learned model to uncover putative mechanisms driving superior outcomes. Patients with higher T follicular helper infiltrates were robust to defects in the class-I Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC-I). Further investigation uncovered different ICB responses in MHC-I versus MHC-II neoantigen reliant tumors across patients. Despite similar response rates, MHC-II reliant responses were associated with significantly longer durable clinical benefit (Discovery: Median OS=63.6 vs. 34.5 months P=0.0074; Validation: Median OS=37.5 vs. 33.1 months, P=0.040). Characteristics of the tumor immune microenvironment reflected MHC neoantigen reliance, and analysis of immune checkpoints revealed LAG3 as a potential target in MHC-II but not MHC-I reliant responses. This study highlights the value of interpretable machine learning models in elucidating the biological basis of therapy responses.
Keywords: Anti-tumor immunity; germline variants; immune checkpoint blockade; immune evasion; machine learning.