Path dependence influences macroevolutionary predictability by constraining potential outcomes after critical evolutionary junctions. Although it has been demonstrated in laboratory experiments, path dependence is difficult to demonstrate in natural systems because of a lack of independent replicates. Here, we show that two types of distributed visual systems recently evolved twice within chitons, demonstrating rapid and path-dependent evolution of a complex trait. The type of visual system that a chiton lineage can evolve is constrained by the number of openings for sensory nerves in its shell plates. Lineages with more openings evolve visual systems with thousands of eyespots, whereas those with fewer openings evolve visual systems with hundreds of shell eyes. These macroevolutionary outcomes shaped by path dependence are both deterministic and stochastic because possibilities are restricted yet not entirely predictable.