Importance: New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) occurs in approximately 30% of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). It is unknown whether early recurrence is associated with worse outcomes.
Objective: To test the hypothesis that early AF recurrence in patients with POAF after CABG is associated with worse outcomes.
Design, setting, and participants: This Swedish nationwide cohort study used prospectively collected data from the SWEDEHEART (Swedish Web System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies) registry and 3 other mandatory national registries. The study included patients who underwent isolated first-time CABG between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2020, and developed POAF. Data analysis was performed between March 6 and September 16, 2023.
Exposure: Early AF recurrence defined as an episode of AF leading to hospital care within 3 months after discharge.
Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included ischemic stroke, any thromboembolism, heart failure hospitalization, and major bleeding within 2 years after discharge. The groups were compared with multivariable Cox regression models, with early AF recurrence as a time-dependent covariate. The hypothesis tested was formulated after data collection.
Results: Of the 35 329 patients identified, 10 609 (30.0%) developed POAF after CABG and were included in this study. Their median age was 71 (IQR, 66-76) years. The median follow-up was 7.1 (IQR, 2.9-9.0) years, and most patients (81.6%) were men. Early AF recurrence occurred in 6.7% of patients. Event rates (95% CIs) per 100 patient-years with vs without early AF recurrence were 2.21 (1.49-3.24) vs 2.03 (1.83-2.25) for all-cause mortality, 3.94 (2.92-5.28) vs 2.79 (2.56-3.05) for heart failure hospitalization, and 3.97 (2.95-5.30) vs 2.74 (2.51-2.99) for major bleeding. No association between early AF recurrence and all-cause mortality was observed (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.17 [95% CI, 0.80-1.74]; P = .41). In exploratory analyses, there was an association with heart failure hospitalization (AHR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.32-2.45]; P = .001) and major bleeding (AHR, 1.92 [1.42-2.61]; P < .001).
Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study of early AF recurrence after POAF in patients who underwent CABG, no association was found between early AF recurrence and all-cause mortality. Exploratory analyses showed associations between AF recurrence and heart failure hospitalization, oral anticoagulation, and major bleeding.