Estimates of global mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2·5)

Wenhua Yu; Rongbin Xu; Tingting Ye; Michael J Abramson; Lidia Morawska; Bin Jalaludin; Fay H Johnston; Sarah B Henderson; Luke D Knibbs; Geoffrey G Morgan; Eric Lavigne; Jane Heyworth; Simon Hales; Guy B Marks; Alistair Woodward; Michelle L Bell; Jonathan M Samet; Jiangning Song; Shanshan Li; Yuming Guo

doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00003-2

Estimates of global mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2·5)

Lancet Planet Health. 2024 Mar;8(3):e146-e155. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00003-2.

Authors

Wenhua Yu¹, Rongbin Xu¹, Tingting Ye¹, Michael J Abramson¹, Lidia Morawska², Bin Jalaludin³, Fay H Johnston⁴, Sarah B Henderson⁵, Luke D Knibbs⁶, Geoffrey G Morgan⁷, Eric Lavigne⁸, Jane Heyworth⁹, Simon Hales¹⁰, Guy B Marks¹¹, Alistair Woodward¹², Michelle L Bell¹³, Jonathan M Samet¹⁴, Jiangning Song¹⁵, Shanshan Li¹⁶, Yuming Guo¹⁷

Affiliations

¹ Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
² International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.
³ School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
⁴ Menzies Institute for Medical Research, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.
⁵ Environmental Health Services, BC Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
⁶ School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Public Health Unit, Sydney Local Health District, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
⁷ School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; University Centre for Rural Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
⁸ Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
⁹ School of Population and Global Health, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia.
¹⁰ Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington South, New Zealand.
¹¹ Medicine & Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
¹² Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
¹³ School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
¹⁴ Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, USA.
¹⁵ Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
¹⁶ Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: shanshan.li@monash.edu.
¹⁷ Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia. Electronic address: yuming.guo@monash.edu.

PMID: 38453380
DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00003-2

Abstract

Background: The acute health effects of short-term (hours to days) exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2·5) have been well documented; however, the global mortality burden attributable to this exposure has not been estimated. We aimed to estimate the global, regional, and urban mortality burden associated with short-term exposure to PM_2·5 and the spatiotemporal variations in this burden from 2000 to 2019.

Methods: We combined estimated global daily PM_2·5 concentrations, annual population counts, country-level mortality rates, and epidemiologically derived exposure-response functions to estimate the mortality attributable to short-term PM_2·5 exposure from 2000 to 2019, in the continental regions and in 13 189 urban centres worldwide at a spatial resolution of 0·1° × 0·1°. We tested the robustness of our mortality estimates with different theoretical minimum risk exposure levels, lag effects, and exposure-response functions.

Findings: Approximately 1 million (95% CI 690 000-1·3 million) premature deaths per year from 2000 to 2019 were attributable to short-term PM_2·5 exposure, representing 2·08% (1·41-2·75) of total global deaths or 17 (11-22) premature deaths per 100 000 population. Annually, 0·23 million (0·15 million-0·30 million) deaths attributable to short-term PM_2·5 exposure were in urban areas, constituting 22·74% of the total global deaths attributable to this cause and accounting for 2·30% (1·56-3·05) of total global deaths in urban areas. The sensitivity analyses showed that our worldwide estimates of mortality attributed to short-term PM_2·5 exposure were robust.

Interpretation: Short-term exposure to PM_2·5 contributes a substantial global mortality burden, particularly in Asia and Africa, as well as in global urban areas. Our results highlight the importance of mitigation strategies to reduce short-term exposure to air pollution and its adverse effects on human health.

Funding: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Air Pollution* / adverse effects
Air Pollution* / analysis
Asia
Australia
Humans
Mortality, Premature
Particulate Matter* / analysis

Substances

Particulate Matter