Background and aims: China accounts for nearly half of liver cancer deaths globally. A better understanding of the current liver cancer mortality will be helpful to establishing priorities for intervention and to decreasing the disease burden of liver cancer. The study aimed to explore and predict the mortality burden of liver cancer in China.
Methods: Data were extracted from the Disease Surveillance Point system of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2008 to 2020. Crude and age-standardized liver cancer mortality rates were reported by sex, urban or rural residence, and region. Trends in liver cancer mortality rates from 2008 to 2020 were estimated as average annual percentage change (AAPC). The changing trend of live cancer mortality in the future is also predicted.
Results: In 2020, the crude mortality of liver cancer was 25.57/100,000, and males and people lived in rural areas had higher age-standardized liver cancer mortality rates than females and people lived in people in urban areas. Crude mortality and age-standardized mortality rates in southwest provinces (Guangxi, Sichuan, Tibet) and in a northeast province (Heilongjiang) were higher than that in other provinces, and age-specific mortality rates increased with age. From 2008 to 2020, liver cancer mortality rates decreased, but people under 50 years of age had a higher AAPC than those over 50 years of age, possibly because of the adoption of hepatitis B virus vaccination in newborns and children. Furthermore, the mortality of liver cancer in 2021-2030 is predicted to have a downward trend.
Conclusions: Liver cancer mortality rates declined in China from 2008 to 2020. Future interventions to control liver cancer mortality need to focus on people of male sex, older age, and living in rural areas or less developed provinces.
Keywords: Burden; China; Liver cancer; Mortality; Prediction; Trend.
© 2024 Authors.