Coral bleaching, the stress-induced breakdown of coral-algal symbiosis, threatens reefs globally. Paradoxically, despite adverse fitness effects, corals bleach annually, even outside of abnormal temperatures. This generally occurs shortly after the once-per-year mass coral spawning. Here, we propose a hypothesis linking annual coral bleaching and the transmission of symbionts to the next generation of coral hosts. We developed a dynamic model with two symbiont growth strategies, and found that high sexual recruitment and low adult coral survivorship and growth favour bleaching susceptibility, while the reverse promotes bleaching resilience. Otherwise, unexplained trends in the Indo-Pacific align with our hypothesis, where reefs and coral taxa exhibiting higher recruitment are more bleaching susceptible. The results from our model caution against interpreting potential shifts towards more bleaching-resistant symbionts as evidence of climate adaptation-we predict such a shift could also occur in declining systems experiencing low recruitment rates, a common scenario on today's reefs.
Keywords: bleaching; climate change; coral biology; modelling; population dynamics; reef ecology; symbiosis.
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