Association of the longitudinal trajectory of urinary albumin/creatinine ratio in diabetic patients with adverse cardiac event risk: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Objective: The baseline urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (uACR) has been proven to be significantly associated with the risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). However, data on the association between the longitudinal trajectory patterns of uACR, changes in glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), and the subsequent risk of MACE in patients with diabetes are sparse.

Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study including 601 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM; uACR < 300 mg/g) admitted to The First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University and The Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University from January 2015 to December 2018. The uACR index was calculated as urinary albumin (in milligrams)/creatinine (in grams), and latent mixed modeling was used to identify the longitudinal trajectory of uACR during the exposure period (2016-2020). The deadline for follow-up was December 31, 2021. The primary outcome was the MACE [a composite outcome of cardiogenic death, hospitalization related to heart failure (HHF), non-fatal acute myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and acute renal injury/dialysis indications]. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis curve was used to compare the risk of MACE among four groups, while univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were employed to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for MACE risk among different uACR or HbA1c trajectory groups. The predictive performance of the model, both before and after the inclusion of changes in the uACR and HbA1c, was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).

Results: Four distinct uACR trajectories were identified, namely, the low-stable group (uACR = 5.2-38.3 mg/g, n = 112), the moderate-stable group (uACR = 40.4-78.6 mg/g, n = 229), the high-stable group (uACR = 86.1-153.7 mg/g, n = 178), and the elevated-increasing group (uACR = 54.8-289.4 mg/g, n = 82). In addition, five distinct HbA1c trajectories were also identified: the low-stable group (HbA1c = 5.5%-6.8%, n = 113), the moderate-stable group (HbA1c = 6.0%-7.9%, n = 169), the moderate-decreasing group (HbA1c = 7.4%-6.1%, n = 67), the high-stable group (HbA1c = 7.7%-8.9%, n = 158), and the elevated-increasing group (HbA1c = 8.4%-10.3%, n = 94). Compared with the low-stable uACR group, patients in the high-stable and elevated-increasing uACR groups were more likely to be older, current smokers, and have a longer DM course, higher levels of 2-h plasma glucose (PG), HbA1c, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), uACR, and left ventricular mass index (LVMI), while featuring a higher prevalence of hypertension and a lower proportion of β-receptor blocker treatment (p < 0.05). During a median follow-up of 45 months (range, 24-57 months), 118 cases (19.6%) of MACE were identified, including 10 cases (1.7%) of cardiogenic death, 31 cases (5.2%) of HHF, 35 cases (5.8%) of non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (AMI), 18 cases (3.0%) of non-fatal stroke, and 24 cases (4.0%) of acute renal failure/dialysis. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that, compared with that in the low-stable uACR group, the incidence of MACE in the high-stable (HR = 1.337, 95% CI = 1.083-1.652, p = 0.007) and elevated-increasing (HR = 1.648, 95% CI = 1.139-2.387, p = 0.009) uACR groups significantly increased. Similar results were observed for HHF, non-fatal AMI, and acute renal injury/dialysis indications (p < 0.05). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards models indicated that, after adjusting for potential confounders, the HRs for the risk of MACE were 1.145 (p = 0.132), 1.337 (p = 0.007), and 1.648 (p = 0.009) in the moderate-stable, high-stable, and elevated-increasing uACR groups, respectively. In addition, the HRs for the risk of MACE were 1.203 (p = 0.028), 0.872 (p = 0.024), 1.562 (p = 0.033), and 2.218 (p = 0.002) in the moderate-stable, moderate-decreasing, high-stable, and elevated-increasing groups, respectively. The ROC curve showed that, after adding uACR, HbA1c, or both, the AUCs were 0.773, 0.792, and 0.826, which all signified statistically significant improvements (p = 0.021, 0.035, and 0.019, respectively).

Conclusion: A long-term elevated uACR is associated with a significantly increased risk of MACE in patients with diabetes. This study implies that regular monitoring of uACR could be helpful in identifying diabetic patients with a higher risk of MACE.

Keywords: association; major adverse cardiorenovascular events; trajectory; type 2 diabetes mellitus; urinary albumin/creatinine ratio.