Evolution of artificial neural network architecture: prediction of depression after mania

Methods Inf Med. 1998 Sep;37(3):220-5.

Abstract

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are compared to standard statistical methods for outcome prediction in biomedical problems. A general method for using genetic algorithms to "evolve" ANN architecture (EANN) is presented. Accuracy of logistic regression, a fully interconnected ANN, and an EANN for predicting depression after mania are examined. All methods showed very good agreement (training set accuracy, chi-square all p < 0.01). However, significant differences were found for stability (test set accuracy); logistic regression being the most unstable and EANN being significantly more stable than a fully interconnected ANN (McNemar p < 0.01). We conclude that the EANN method enhances ANN stability. This approach may have particular relevance for biomedical prediction problems, such as predicting depression after mania.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Bipolar Disorder / diagnosis*
  • Bipolar Disorder / genetics
  • Depressive Disorder / diagnosis*
  • Depressive Disorder / genetics
  • Genetic Predisposition to Disease / genetics
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Neural Networks, Computer*
  • Risk