During the epidemics of COVID-19 in domestic China and recently continuing rapid spread worldwide, a bunch of studies fitted the epidemics by transmission dynamics model to nowcast and forecast the trend of epidemics of COVID-19. However, due to little known of the new virus in early stage and much uncertainty in the comprehensive strategies of prevention and control for epidemics, majority of models, not surprisingly, predict in less accuracy, although the dynamics model has its great value in better understanding of transmission. This comment discusses the principle assumptions and limitations of the dynamics model in forecasting the epidemic trend, as well as its great potential role in evaluating the efforts of prevention and control strategies.
新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发生后，不少学者采用传染病动力学模型进行疫情的趋势分析和发病数的拟合及预测，但由于传染病综合防控中的一些不确定因素，导致很多模型预测不准确。本文论述了传染病动力学模型的理论假设、局限性，以及在疫情预警、防控决策以及防控措施效果评价中的应用价值。.
Keywords: COVID-19; Epidemics; Evaluation; Forecasting; Transmission dynamics model.