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Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament.
Mellers B, Ungar L, Baron J, Ramos J, Gurcay B, Fincher K, Scott SE, Moore D, Atanasov P, Swift SA, Murray T, Stone E, Tetlock PE. Mellers B, et al. Psychol Sci. 2014 May 1;25(5):1106-15. doi: 10.1177/0956797614524255. Epub 2014 Mar 21. Psychol Sci. 2014. PMID: 24659192 Clinical Trial.
Judging political judgment.
Tetlock P, Mellers B. Tetlock P, et al. Among authors: mellers b. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Aug 12;111(32):11574-5. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1412524111. Epub 2014 Jul 30. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014. PMID: 25077975 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.
Mellers B, Stone E, Atanasov P, Rohrbaugh N, Metz SE, Ungar L, Bishop MM, Horowitz M, Merkle E, Tetlock P. Mellers B, et al. J Exp Psychol Appl. 2015 Mar;21(1):1-14. doi: 10.1037/xap0000040. Epub 2015 Jan 12. J Exp Psychol Appl. 2015. PMID: 25581088
Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Me …
Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational varia …
Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science.
Dhami MK, Mandel DR, Mellers BA, Tetlock PE. Dhami MK, et al. Perspect Psychol Sci. 2015 Nov;10(6):753-7. doi: 10.1177/1745691615598511. Perspect Psychol Sci. 2015. PMID: 26581731 Review.
35 results