The intramolecular Stetter reaction catalyzed by a carbene is investigated by density functional theory (DFT) calculations and kinetic simulations. Catalyst 1 first reacts with aldehyde 2 to give the primary adduct (PA). The PA undergoes the intramolecular oxa-Michael reaction to irreversibly generate enol ether intermediate 9. The conversion of the enol ether to the Breslow intermediate (BI) requires the assistance of a base such as the PA. The next step involves formation of a carbon-carbon bond through the Michael addition, and expulsion of the catalyst generates the Stetter product 7. Calculations show that the catalytic cycle is composed of two irreversible processes: the first one involves the exergonic formation of the enol ether intermediate, while the second one is the conversion of the enol ether to the final product. Kinetic simulations using initial concentrations of [1]0 = 0.005 M and [2]0 = 0.025 M demonstrate that under a steady-state condition, 35% of the catalyst rests on the state of the enol ether (0.0018 M). The catalyst resting state therefore consists of the unbound form (the free catalyst) and its bound form (the enol ether species). According to variable time normalization analysis, the reaction exhibits a second-order dependence (first order in catalyst and first order in substrate), which agrees with experiments. The oxa-Michael reaction to form the enol ether is identified to be turnover limiting in the intramolecular Stetter reaction, which rationalizes the observed electronic effect of the Michael acceptor on the reactivity, as well as the measured isotope effect with respect to the aldehydic proton/deuteron. The base that participates in the BI formation has a significant effect on the build-up of the resting state 9 and the active catalyst concentration. In addition, the thermodynamic stability of the enol ether is found to depend on the tether length between the aromatic aldehyde and the Michael acceptor, as well as the chemical nature of the carbene catalyst. The favorability for the oxa-Michael reaction is therefore suggested to govern the reactivity of the intramolecular Stetter transformation.