Purpose: Minimal residual disease (MRD) detection identifies patients with colorectal adenocarcinoma (CRC) likely to recur following definitive treatment. We evaluated a plasma only MRD assay to predict recurrence and survival in metastatic CRC patients undergoing curative intent procedures (surgery and/or radiotherapy), with or without (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy. The primary objective of this study was to assess the correlation of post-procedure tumor cfDNA detection status with radiographic disease recurrence (RFS).
Experimental design: Pre- and post-procedure longitudinal samples were collected from 53 patients and analyzed with a multiomic MRD assay detecting circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) from genomic and epigenomic signals. Pre- and post-procedure ctDNA detection correlated with recurrence-free and overall survival.
Results: 230/233 samples from 52 patients were successfully analyzed. At the time of data cutoff, 36 (69.2%) patients recurred with median follow-up of 31 months. 19/42 patients (45.2%) with ctDNA analyzed 3 weeks post-procedure had detectable ctDNA. ctDNA detection 3 weeks post-procedure was associated with shorter median RFS (HR 5.27; 95% CI, 2.31-12.0, p<0.0001) and overall survival (OS) (HR 12.83; 95% CI, 3.6-45.9, p<0.0001). Pre-procedure ctDNA detection status was not associated with RFS but was associated with improved OS (HR 4.65; 95% CI, 1.4-15.2, p=0.0111). Undetectable ctDNA pre-procedure had notable long-term overall survival, >90% 3 years post-procedure.
Conclusion: In this cohort of oligometastatic CRC, detection of ctDNA pre- or post-procedure was associated with inferior outcomes even after accounting for prognostic clinicopathologic variables. This suggests ctDNA may enhance current risk stratification methods helping evaluate novel treatments and surveillance strategies toward improving patient outcomes.