Background: We previously identified serum creatinine values >2 mg/dL (176.8 micromol/L) and pathological chest radiographs due to the presence of pleural effusions or pulmonary densifications as two early prognostic factors of life-threatening acute pancreatitis (AP). The aim of the present study was to validate their prognostic efficacy in combination.
Methods: We analyzed as prognostic factors only the data obtained within 24 hours of admission in 539 cases of AP, including 163 patients (30.2%) with acute necrotizing pancreatitis (NP). Eleven patients (2%) presented with infected pancreatic necrosis, and 20 patients (3.7%) died.
Results: One hundred and nine cases (20.2%) presented pathological chest radiographs: 32 (5.9%) pulmonary densifications and 77 (14.3%) pleural effusions (18 right, 25 left, 34 bilateral). Fifty-one patients (9.5%) had serum creatinine values >2 mg/dL. Pathological chest radiographs and serum creatinine values >2 mg/dL were significantly associated both with mortality risk (P <0.00001), with a diagnosis of NP (P <0.00001), and with risk of developing infected necrosis (P <0.0001). Considering positivity of either or both tests, the mortality risk sensitivity was 90% (95% confidence interval [CI] 70.7 to 98.3) with a specificity of 76% (CI 72.5 to 79.8), for the NP diagnosis the sensitivity was 60% (CI 52.5 to 67.4) and the specificity 88% (CI 85.0-91.5), whereas for the risk of infected necrosis the sensitivity was 73% (CI 42.2 to 92.6) and specificity 75% (CI 70.1 to 78.4). These data are comparable to those obtained with the Ranson or Glasgow scores at 24 hour in this patient group, with a cut-off > or =3.
Conclusions: Serum creatinine and chest radiographs are two indices capable of identifying, within 24 hour of admission, a subgroup of acute pancreatitis patients with a more severe or adverse clinical course.