Aims: To examine the risk of progression to diabetes in Chinese subjects with impaired fasting glycaemia (IFG) or normal fasting glucose (NFG).
Methods: Between 1988 and 1996, 657 Hong Kong Chinese subjects underwent annual screening, using an oral glucose tolerance test, until they had developed diabetes, or until June 1997, when the data were analysed. All subjects had a risk factor associated with the development of diabetes such as a history of gestational diabetes or a family history of diabetes. The follow-up interval for the subjects ranged from 0.87 to 8.54 years and of the 657, 319 had fasting plasma glucose levels of < 7.0 mmol/L where a fasting glucose level of > or = 7.0 mmol/L was used to diagnose diabetes
Results: Of the 319 nondiabetic subjects, 55 had IFG and 264 had NFG. After a median follow-up of 1.12 years (range: 0.87-8.54 years), 27 progressed to diabetes. The Kaplan-Meier analysis of progression to diabetes showed significant differences between subjects with IFG and subjects with NFG. Using Cox regression analysis, IFG (beta = 3.51, SE = 1.63, P = 0.032) and smoking (beta = 3.60, SE = 1.50, P = 0.017) were found to be independently associated with progression to diabetes.
Conclusions: In Hong Kong Chinese with risk factors for glucose intolerance, IFG status is an independent risk factor for progression to diabetes.