The Heart Allograft Rejection: Detection with Breath Alkanes in Low Levels study evaluated a breath test for oxidative stress in heart transplant recipients, and we report here a mathematical model predicting the probability of grade 3 rejection. The breath test divided the heart transplant recipients into 3 groups: positive for grade 3 rejection, negative for grade 3 rejection, and intermediate. The test was 100% sensitive for grade 3 heart transplant rejection when the p value was >/=0.98, and 100% specific when the p value was </=0.058; in the intermediate group, the breath test determined the probability of grade 3 rejection and the predictive value of the result.