Aim: To estimate the impact of the next influenza pandemic on population health and health sector capacity in New Zealand.
Method: Population data for New Zealand was used with the software package 'FluAid' (CDC, Atlanta). Additional data was used to provide estimates of impacts on health sector capacity.
Results: For incidence rates in the 15% to 35% range for the first pandemic wave, the modelling results give a range of 1600 to 3700 deaths attributable to pandemic influenza. The estimated range of hospitalisations was between 6900 and 16,200. The estimated number of cases of illness requiring medical consultation ranged from 325,000 to 759,000. For the peak week of an 8-week epidemic (35% incidence scenario), it was estimated that 42% of all public hospital beds would be required at least for some proportion of the week and that the average general practitioner would be consulted by around 80 people with influenza.
Conclusion: This modelling work has a number of limitations and so these results could still substantially over- or under-estimate the impact of the next influenza pandemic. Nevertheless, the potentially severe impact of pandemic influenza on population health and health sector capacity provides a strong case for health authorities to intensify preparatory efforts and to strengthen health sector infrastructure.