Summary background: The incidence of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) varies depending on the nature of the initial provoking risk factor(s).
Objectives: To compare the incidence and time course of recurrent VTE after unprovoked VTE vs. VTE provoked by nine different types of surgery.
Methods: Retrospective analysis of linked California hospital and emergency department discharge records. Between 1997 and 2007, all surgery-provoked VTE cases had a first-time VTE event diagnosed within 60 days after undergoing a major operation. The incidence of recurrent VTE was compared during specified follow-up periods by matching each surgery-provoked case with three unprovoked cases based on age, race, gender, VTE event, calendar year and co-morbidity.
Results: The 4-year Kaplan-Meier cumulative incidence of recurrent VTE was 14.7% (95%CI: 14.2-15.1) in the matched unprovoked VTE group vs. 7.6% (CI: 7.0-8.2) in 11 797 patients with surgery-provoked VTE (P < 0.001). The overall risk reduction was 48%, which ranged from 64% lower risk (P < 0.001) after coronary bypass surgery to 25% lower risk (P = 0.06) after disc surgery. The risk of recurrent VTE 1-5 years after the index event was significantly lower in the surgery group (HR = 0.47, CI: 0.41-0.53). Within the surgery-provoked group, the risk of recurrent VTE was similar in men and women (HR = 1.0, CI: 0.8-1.3).
Conclusions: The risk of recurrent VTE after surgery-provoked VTE was approximately 50% lower than after unprovoked VTE, confirming the view that provoked VTE is associated with a lower risk of recurrent VTE. However, there was appreciable heterogeneity in the relative risk of recurrent VTE associated with different operations.