Ten-year probability of osteoporotic fracture in 2012 Polish women assessed by FRAX and nomogram by Nguyen et al.-Conformity between methods and their clinical utility

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of the cross-sectional study was to establish the degree of conformity between 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture, assessed by FRAX, and using the nomograms, as proposed by Nguyen at al.

Methods: Postmenopausal Polish women (2012) were examined in their mean age of 68.5+/-7.9 years (age range 55-90 years). Fracture probability by FRAX was based on age, BMI, prior fracture, hip fracture in parents, steroid use, rheumatoid arthritis, alcohol use, secondary osteoporosis and T-score for femoral neck BMD. Fracture probability by Nguyen's nomograms was based on age, the number of prior fractures, the number of falls and T-score for femoral neck BMD.

Results: The mean conformity rate was 79.1% for any fracture risk (for threshold 20%) and 79.5% for hip fracture (threshold 3%). Any and hip fracture risks were significantly higher for both methods in women with fracture history in comparison to those without fracture and increased with ageing. The influence of prior fracture and ageing was more evident in Nguyen's nomograms. ROC analyses of any fracture risk in FRAX and Nguyen's methods demonstrated the area under curve (AUC) at 0.833 and 0.879, respectively. Similar analyses for hip fracture demonstrated AUCs for FRAX and Nguyen's technique at 0.726 and 0.850, respectively. The AUCs for Nguyen's nomograms were significantly larger than the AUCs for FRAX (p<0.0001).

Conclusion: The mean conformity for any fracture risk is 79.1% and 79.5% for hip fracture. Nguyen's nomograms seem to be more efficient in fracture risk assessment, especially for hip fractures, due to a higher accuracy of the method. The information on the number of falls during the last year and multiple fractures ought to be incorporated into the method of fracture risk prediction.

Mini-abstract: The degree of conformity was assessed in a group of 2012 women between 10-year FRAX prognosis of fracture and Nguyen et al.'s nomograms. The mean conformity for any fracture risk is 79.1% and 79.5% for hip fracture. Nguyen's nomograms seem to be more efficient in fracture risk assessment due to higher accuracy.