Background: Analysis of prognostic factors for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was performed using final data from a randomized phase III trial of sunitinib versus interferon-α (IFN-α) as first-line metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) therapy.
Design: A multivariate Cox regression model analyzed baseline variables for prognostic significance. Each variable was investigated univariately and then multivariately using a stepwise algorithm.
Results: Each treatment arm comprised 375 patients. For sunitinib, multivariate analysis of PFS identified five independent predictors, including serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, presence of ≥2 metastatic sites, no prior nephrectomy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, and baseline platelet count, while multivariate analysis of OS identified serum LDH level, corrected serum calcium level, time from diagnosis to treatment, hemoglobin level, ECOG performance status, and presence of bone metastasis as predictors. For IFN-α, LDH level and presence of ≥2 metastatic sites were common predictors of PFS to those for sunitinib, as were all predictors of OS except ECOG status.
Conclusions: This analysis identified prognostic factors for PFS and OS with sunitinib as first-line metastatic RCC therapy and confirmed that the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center model is applicable in the era of targeted therapy.