Predictors of early postdischarge mortality in critically ill patients: a retrospective cohort study from the California Intensive Care Outcomes project

J Crit Care. 2011 Feb;26(1):65-75. doi: 10.1016/j.jcrc.2010.06.010. Epub 2010 Aug 16.

Abstract

Purpose: Existing intensive care unit (ICU) mortality measurement systems address in-hospital mortality only. However, early postdischarge mortality contributes significantly to overall 30-day mortality. Factors associated with early postdischarge mortality are unknown.

Methods: We performed a retrospective study of 8484 ICU patients. Our primary outcome was early postdischarge mortality: death after hospital discharge and 30 days or less from ICU admission. Cox regression models assessed the association between patient, hospital, and utilization factors and the primary outcome.

Results: In multivariate analyses, the hazard for early postdischarge mortality increased with rising severity of illness and decreased with full-code status (hazard ratio [HR], 0.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21-0.49). Compared with discharges home, early postdischarge mortality was highest for acute care transfers (HR, 3.18; 95% CI, 2.45-4.12). Finally, patients with very short ICU length of stay (<1 day) had greater early postdischarge mortality (HR, 1.86; 95% CI; 1.32-2.61) than those with longest stays (≥7 days).

Conclusions: Early postdischarge mortality is associated with patient preferences (full-code status) and decisions regarding timing and location of discharge. These findings have important implications for anyone attempting to measure or improve ICU performance and who rely on in-hospital mortality measures to do so.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • California / epidemiology
  • Critical Illness / mortality*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Intensive Care Units / statistics & numerical data*
  • Length of Stay / statistics & numerical data*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care*
  • Patient Discharge / statistics & numerical data*
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Time Factors
  • Young Adult