Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics

Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2010 May;81(5 Pt 1):051901. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.81.051901. Epub 2010 May 3.

Abstract

We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Calibration
  • Cholera / epidemiology*
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Epidemics
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Public Health
  • South Africa
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Time Factors
  • Vibrio cholerae / metabolism