With data from 2 large randomized British Medical Research Council studies we identified several factors influencing the recurrence of newly diagnosed superficial bladder cancer. Using multivariate methods to assess the relative importance of these factors we found the most important to be the result of cystoscopy performed 3 months after initial transurethral resection and the number of tumors (single or multiple) at presentation. With these 2 factors we divided the patient population into 3 groups with varying degrees of prognosis. Different followup procedures are proposed for each of these 3 groups.