A PERIODIC ROSS-MACDONALD MODEL IN A PATCHY ENVIRONMENT

Discrete Continuous Dyn Syst Ser B. 2014 Dec 1;19(10):3133-3145. doi: 10.3934/dcdsb.2014.19.3133.

Abstract

Based on the classical Ross-Macdonald model, in this paper we propose a periodic malaria model to incorporate the effects of temporal and spatial heterogeneity on disease transmission. The temporal heterogeneity is described by assuming that some model coefficients are time-periodic, while the spatial heterogeneity is modeled by using a multi-patch structure and assuming that individuals travel among patches. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that either the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text] or the positive periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulations are conducted to confirm the analytical results and explore the effect of travel control on the disease prevalence.

Keywords: Malaria; basic reproduction number; patch model; seasonality; threshold dynamics.