Assessing the risk of observing multiple generations of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) cases given an imported case

Euro Surveill. 2015 Jul 9;20(27):21181. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.es2015.20.27.21181.

Abstract

To guide risk assessment, expected numbers of cases and generations were estimated, assuming a case importation of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Our analysis of 36 importation events yielded the risk of observing secondary transmission events at 22.7% (95% confidence interval: 19.3–25.1). The risks of observing generations 2, 3 and 4 were estimated at 10.5%, 6.1% and 3.9%, respectively. Countries at risk should be ready for highly variable outcomes following an importation of MERS.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Coronavirus Infections / diagnosis*
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
  • Cross Infection / transmission*
  • Humans
  • Middle East / epidemiology
  • Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus / isolation & purification*
  • Risk
  • Risk Assessment / statistics & numerical data*
  • Time Factors
  • Travel*