Incident Ischemic Heart Disease After Long-Term Occupational Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter: Accounting for 2 Forms of Survivor Bias

Abstract

Little is known about the heart disease risks associated with occupational, rather than traffic-related, exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 µm or less (PM2.5). We examined long-term exposure to PM2.5 in cohorts of aluminum smelters and fabrication workers in the United States who were followed for incident ischemic heart disease from 1998 to 2012, and we addressed 2 forms of survivor bias. Left truncation bias was addressed by restricting analyses to the subcohort hired after the start of follow up. Healthy worker survivor bias, which is characterized by time-varying confounding that is affected by prior exposure, was documented only in the smelters and required the use of marginal structural Cox models. When comparing always-exposed participants above the 10th percentile of annual exposure with those below, the hazard ratios were 1.67 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11, 2.52) and 3.95 (95% CI: 0.87, 18.00) in the full and restricted subcohorts of smelter workers, respectively. In the fabrication stratum, hazard ratios based on conditional Cox models were 0.98 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.02) and 1.17 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.37) per 1 mg/m(3)-year in the full and restricted subcohorts, respectively. Long-term exposure to occupational PM2.5 was associated with a higher risk of ischemic heart disease among aluminum manufacturing workers, particularly in smelters, after adjustment for survivor bias.

Keywords: epidemiologic methods; occupational epidemiology; survivor bias.