Impact of virus eradication in patients with compensated hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis: competing risks and multistate model

Liver Int. 2016 Dec;36(12):1765-1773. doi: 10.1111/liv.13156. Epub 2016 Oct 19.

Abstract

Background & aims: No published study to date has provided a careful analysis of the effects of a sustained viral response (SVR) on the outcomes of patients with compensated hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related cirrhosis in relation to the degree of portal hypertension. Therefore, we estimated the impact of achieving SVR on disease progression, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development and mortality in a large cohort of HCV patients with cirrhosis with or without oesophageal varices (OVs) at the start of antiviral therapy.

Methods: A total of 535 Caucasian patients were prospectively recruited to this study. All patients had a clinical or histological diagnosis of compensated HCV-related cirrhosis and underwent interferon-based therapy. Competing risks and a multistate model were analysed according to the presence or absence of OVs at baseline.

Results: Compared to patients without SVR, a greater proportion of patients who achieved SVR showed no liver disease progression after 10 years (36.3% vs. 61.3% of patients without baseline OVs; 29.6% vs. 64.3% of patients with baseline OVs). Achievement of SVR was significantly associated with reduced occurrence rates of de-novo OVs, hepatic decompensation and HCC. Compared to patients without SVR, patients with SVR had lower likelihoods of liver-related death at 10 years (20.6% vs. 10.3% of patients without baseline OVs; 50.5% vs. 21.8% of patients with baseline OVs).

Conclusions: In patients with compensated HCV-related cirrhosis with or without OVs at baseline, SVR is associated with reduced disease progression and liver-related mortality.

Keywords: HCV; SVR; cirrhosis; multistate.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Antiviral Agents / therapeutic use
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / mortality*
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / virology
  • Disease Progression
  • Esophageal and Gastric Varices / etiology
  • Female
  • Hepacivirus
  • Hepatitis C, Chronic / drug therapy*
  • Humans
  • Italy
  • Liver / pathology
  • Liver Cirrhosis / drug therapy*
  • Liver Cirrhosis / virology
  • Liver Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Liver Neoplasms / virology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prospective Studies
  • Sustained Virologic Response*

Substances

  • Antiviral Agents