Background: Today's highly efficacious, low-toxicity interferon-free treatment regimens for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) can cure most patients with HCV in 12-24 weeks. The aim of this study was to understand how the introduction of shorter duration treatment regimens for HCV will impact the capacity for treatment and value to society.
Methods: A Markov model of HCV transmission and progression was constructed, incorporating nationally representative data on HCV prevalence, incidence and progression; mortality, treatment costs, medical expenditures, employment probabilities and disability payments in Germany. The model was stratified by HCV genotype and exposure route (1-time healthcare exposure, injection drug use and sexual activity). Treatment scenarios were based on German treatment guidelines and projected treatment capacity. The impact of different treatment scenarios on disease transmission and prevalence, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), treatment costs, medical expenditures, employment and disability expenditures was calculated.
Results: Depending on their adoption profile, new treatment regimens and protocols introduced over the next several years will increase HCV treatment capacity in Germany by 8-30%, reducing disease transmission and prevalence, increasing QALYs and adding €94-310 million in discounted social value (QALYs plus medical savings net of treatment costs) over a 30-year horizon. Additional social value in the form of higher employment and lower disability would also result.
Conclusions: The introduction of shorter HCV treatment regimens and the resulting increased treatment capacity in Germany would result in large gains to society by reducing disease transmission and prevalence, resulting in longer, healthier, more productive lives for current and future generations.
Keywords: HEALTH ECONOMICS; HEPATITIS C; LIVER CIRRHOSIS.