Background: We estimated the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence reduction in Australia that would correspond to achieving the United Nations Program on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets by 2020 and extended targets of 95-95-95 by 2030. This was done in combination with various scale-ups of HIV testing, primary prevention, and preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM). These projections were evaluated against the target of achieving a 90% reduction in HIV incidence by 2030 compared with 2010 levels.
Methods: A mathematical model.
Results: Achieving 90-90-90 by 2020 was estimated to reduce incidence by 10% from 2010 levels. Achieving 95-95-95 by 2030 was estimated to reduce incidence by 17% from 2010 levels, with the first "95" being achievable by testing low- and high-risk MSM 2 and 4 times per year, respectively. This was improved to a 34% reduction by including a 5-year scale-up of PrEP to 30% coverage among high-risk MSM and to 45% by also increasing MSM condom use from 42% to 60%. However, even with 95-95-95, 2 and 4 tests per year for low- and high-risk MSM, 100% high-risk MSM PrEP coverage, and 100% MSM condom use, only an 80% reduction in incidence was possible by 2030.
Conclusions: Many countries, particularly those with low HIV prevalence, will struggle to achieve a 90% reduction in HIV incidence by 2030, even if UNAIDS targets are met. Most will require substantially higher levels of prevention coverage and higher testing frequencies to reach this target.