Aim: To develop metabonomic models (MMs), using 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra of serum, to predict significant liver fibrosis (SF: Metavir ≥ F2), advanced liver fibrosis (AF: METAVIR ≥ F3) and cirrhosis (C: METAVIR = F4 or clinical cirrhosis) in chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients. Additionally, to compare the accuracy of the MMs with the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4).
Methods: Sixty-nine patients who had undergone biopsy in the previous 12 mo or had clinical cirrhosis were included. The presence of any other liver disease was a criterion for exclusion. The MMs, constructed using partial least squares discriminant analysis and linear discriminant analysis formalisms, were tested by cross-validation, considering SF, AF and C.
Results: Results showed that forty-two patients (61%) presented SF, 28 (40%) AF and 18 (26%) C. The MMs showed sensitivity and specificity of 97.6% and 92.6% to predict SF; 96.4% and 95.1% to predict AF; and 100% and 98.0% to predict C. Besides that, the MMs correctly classified all 27 (39.7%) and 25 (38.8%) patients with intermediate values of APRI and FIB-4, respectively.
Conclusion: The metabonomic strategy performed excellently in predicting significant and advanced liver fibrosis in CHC patients, including those in the gray zone of APRI and FIB-4, which may contribute to reducing the need for these patients to undergo liver biopsy.
Keywords: Chronic hepatitis C; Liver fibrosis; Metabolomics; Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy; Surrogate markers.