A modified chain binomial model to analyse the ongoing measles epidemic in Greece, July 2017 to February 2018

Euro Surveill. 2018 Apr;23(17):18-00165. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.17.18-00165.

Abstract

Greece is currently experiencing a large measles outbreak, in the context of multiple similar outbreaks across Europe. We devised and applied a modified chain-binomial epidemic model, requiring very simple data, to estimate the transmission parameters of this outbreak. Model results indicate sustained measles transmission among the Greek Roma population, necessitating a targeted mass vaccination campaign to halt further spread of the epidemic. Our model may be useful for other countries facing similar measles outbreaks.

Keywords: epidemiology; measles; modelling; outbreaks; surveillance.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Epidemics
  • Female
  • Greece / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Immunization Programs*
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Measles / epidemiology*
  • Measles / prevention & control
  • Measles Vaccine / administration & dosage
  • Measles virus
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Population Surveillance
  • Roma / statistics & numerical data*
  • Vulnerable Populations

Substances

  • Measles Vaccine