Modeling the 2016-2017 Yemen cholera outbreak with the impact of limited medical resources

Daihai He; Xueying Wang; Daozhou Gao; Jin Wang

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.04.041

Modeling the 2016-2017 Yemen cholera outbreak with the impact of limited medical resources

J Theor Biol. 2018 Aug 14:451:80-85. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.04.041. Epub 2018 May 1.

Authors

Daihai He¹, Xueying Wang², Daozhou Gao³, Jin Wang⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kowloon, Hung Hom, Hong Kong SAR, China.
² Department of Mathematics, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, 99164, USA.
³ College of Mathematics and Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, China.
⁴ Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN, 37403, USA. Electronic address: jin-wang02@utc.edu.

PMID: 29727633
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.04.041

Abstract

We present a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of the 2016-2017 Yemen cholera outbreak. Our model describes the interaction between the human hosts and the pathogenic bacteria, under the impact of limited medical resources. We fit our model to Yemen epidemic data published by the World Health Organization, at both the country and regional levels. We find that the Yemen cholera outbreak is shaped by the interplay of environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic factors. Our results suggest that improvement of the public health system and strategic implementation of control measures with respect to time and location are key to future cholera prevention and intervention in Yemen.

Keywords: Yemen cholera outbreak; data fitting; mathematical modeling.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Cholera / epidemiology*
Cholera / prevention & control
Cholera / transmission
Disease Outbreaks*
Health Resources / supply & distribution*
Humans
Models, Theoretical*
Risk Factors
Yemen