Modelling the skip-and-resurgence of Japanese encephalitis epidemics in Hong Kong

Abstract

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is a zoonotic mosquito-borne virus, persisting in pigs, Ardeid birds and Culex mosquitoes. It is endemic to China and Southeastern Asia. The case-fatality ratio (CFR) or the rate of permanent psychiatric sequelae is 30% among symptomatic patients. There were no reported local JEV human cases between 2006 and 2010 in Hong Kong, but it was followed by a resurgence of cases from 2011 to 2017. The mechanism behind this "skip-and-resurgence" patterns is unclear. This work aims to reveal the mechanism behind the "skip-and-resurgence" patterns using mathematical modelling and likelihood-based inference techniques. We found that pig-to-pig transmission increases the size of JEV epidemics but is unlikely to maintain the same level of transmission among pigs. The disappearance of JEV human cases in 2006-2010 could be explained by a sudden reduction of the population of farm pigs as a result of the implementation of the voluntary "pig-rearing licence surrendering" policy. The resurgence could be explained by of a new strain in 2011, which increased the transmissibility of the virus or the spill-over ratio from reservoir to host or both.

Keywords: Japanese encephalitis virus; Mathematical modelling; Skip-and-resurgence; Vector-free transmission.