Application of one-step method to parameter estimation in ODE models

Stat Neerl. 2018 May;72(2):126-156. doi: 10.1111/stan.12124. Epub 2018 Feb 22.

Abstract

In this paper, we study application of Le Cam's one-step method to parameter estimation in ordinary differential equation models. This computationally simple technique can serve as an alternative to numerical evaluation of the popular non-linear least squares estimator, which typically requires the use of a multistep iterative algorithm and repetitive numerical integration of the ordinary differential equation system. The one-step method starts from a preliminary n -consistent estimator of the parameter of interest and next turns it into an asymptotic (as the sample size n→∞) equivalent of the least squares estimator through a numerically straightforward procedure. We demonstrate performance of the one-step estimator via extensive simulations and real data examples. The method enables the researcher to obtain both point and interval estimates. The preliminary n -consistent estimator that we use depends on non-parametric smoothing, and we provide a data-driven methodology for choosing its tuning parameter and support it by theory. An easy implementation scheme of the one-step method for practical use is pointed out.

Keywords: 62G20; Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm; Secondary: 62G08; integral estimator; non‐linear least squares; one‐step estimator.AMS 2000 classifications: Primary: 62F12; ordinary differential equations; smooth and match estimator.