Meteorological factors and risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2015

Yuehong Wei; Yang Wang; Xiaoning Li; Pengzhe Qin; Ying Lu; Jianmin Xu; Shouyi Chen; Meixia Li; Zhicong Yang

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0006604

Meteorological factors and risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2015

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2018 Jun 27;12(6):e0006604. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006604. eCollection 2018 Jun.

Authors

Yuehong Wei¹, Yang Wang², Xiaoning Li¹, Pengzhe Qin¹, Ying Lu¹, Jianmin Xu¹, Shouyi Chen¹, Meixia Li¹, Zhicong Yang¹

Affiliations

¹ Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong province, China.
² The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, Guangdong province, China.

Abstract

Background: The epidemic tendency of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is on the rise in recent years in Guangzhou. This study aimed to explore the associations between meteorological factors and HFRS epidemic risk in Guangzhou for the period from 2006-2015.

Methods: We obtained data of HFRS cases in Guangzhou from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) during the period of 2006-2015. Meteorological data were obtained from the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and HFRS.

Results: The annual average incidence was 0.92 per 100000, with the annual incidence ranging from 0.64/100000 in 2009 to 1.05/100000 in 2012. The monthly number of HFRS cases decreased by 5.543% (95%CI -5.564% to -5.523%) each time the temperature was increased by 1°C and the number of cases decreased by 0.075% (95%CI -0.076% to -0.074%) each time the aggregate rainfall was increased by 1 mm. We found that average temperature with a one-month lag was significantly associated with HFRS transmission.

Conclusions: Meteorological factors had significant association with occurrence of HFRS in Guangzhou, Southern China. This study provides preliminary information for further studies on epidemiological prediction of HFRS and for developing an early warning system.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

China / epidemiology
Epidemics
Epidemiological Monitoring
Geography
Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / epidemiology*
Humans
Incidence
Meteorological Concepts
Models, Statistical*
Regression Analysis
Risk
Temperature

Grants and funding

This study was supported by Science and Technology Plan Grant of Guangzhou (201607010130), Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2015A030313813), The Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality (2017-2019-07) and Medical and Health science and technology Project of Guangzhou (20171A011275).The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.