Background/purpose: Liver cancer is the second most common cancer in Taiwan. Research on projected cancer incident rates can facilitate appropriate public health planning, and incidence rate studies can offer insights and enable hypotheses about the etiology of particular cancers.
Methods: Age-period-cohort models are used to estimate incidence trends in liver cancer from 1997 to 2014 and project trends up to 2035.
Results: For men, the age-adjusted incidence rate showed an increasing trend from 1997, which peaked in 2004 (157.6 cases per 100,000 population), and a decreasing trend thereafter. The age-adjusted incidence rate is projected to decrease by 22.2% from 2014 to 2025 and by 37.3% from 2014 to 2035. For women, the age-adjusted incidence rate also showed an increasing trend from 1997, which peaked in 2004 (63.4 cases per 100,000 population), and a decreasing trend thereafter. The age-adjusted incidence rate is projected to decrease by 17.5% from 2014 to 2025 and by 27% from 2014 to 2035.
Conclusion: This study revealed a reduction in the incidence rate of liver cancer for both sexes after 2004, and a further decrease until 2035 is projected.
Keywords: Age-period-cohort model; Cross validation; Liver cancer; Projection.
Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.