Publication bias examined in meta-analyses from psychology and medicine: A meta-meta-analysis

PLoS One. 2019 Apr 12;14(4):e0215052. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215052. eCollection 2019.

Abstract

Publication bias is a substantial problem for the credibility of research in general and of meta-analyses in particular, as it yields overestimated effects and may suggest the existence of non-existing effects. Although there is consensus that publication bias exists, how strongly it affects different scientific literatures is currently less well-known. We examined evidence of publication bias in a large-scale data set of primary studies that were included in 83 meta-analyses published in Psychological Bulletin (representing meta-analyses from psychology) and 499 systematic reviews from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR; representing meta-analyses from medicine). Publication bias was assessed on all homogeneous subsets (3.8% of all subsets of meta-analyses published in Psychological Bulletin) of primary studies included in meta-analyses, because publication bias methods do not have good statistical properties if the true effect size is heterogeneous. Publication bias tests did not reveal evidence for bias in the homogeneous subsets. Overestimation was minimal but statistically significant, providing evidence of publication bias that appeared to be similar in both fields. However, a Monte-Carlo simulation study revealed that the creation of homogeneous subsets resulted in challenging conditions for publication bias methods since the number of effect sizes in a subset was rather small (median number of effect sizes equaled 6). Our findings are in line with, in its most extreme case, publication bias ranging from no bias until only 5% statistically nonsignificant effect sizes being published. These and other findings, in combination with the small percentages of statistically significant primary effect sizes (28.9% and 18.9% for subsets published in Psychological Bulletin and CDSR), led to the conclusion that evidence for publication bias in the studied homogeneous subsets is weak, but suggestive of mild publication bias in both psychology and medicine.

Publication types

  • Meta-Analysis
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Data Interpretation, Statistical*
  • Data Management
  • Databases, Factual
  • Humans
  • Medicine*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Psychology*
  • Publication Bias*
  • Quality Control
  • Selection Bias

Grants and funding

RvA received Grant number: 406-13-050 from The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), URL funder website: www.nwo.nl. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. RvA also received funding from Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences and the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, URL funder website: www.bitss.org. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. JW received Grant number: 726361 (IMPROVE) fromThe European Research Council, URL funder website: www.erc.europa.eu. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.