Space-time clustering of recently-diagnosed tuberculosis and impact of ART scale-up: Evidence from an HIV hyper-endemic rural South African population

Sci Rep. 2019 Jul 24;9(1):10724. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-46455-7.

Abstract

In HIV hyperendemic sub-Saharan African communities, particularly in southern Africa, the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of ending the tuberculosis (TB) epidemic by 2030 is low, due to lack of cost-effective and practical interventions in population settings. We used one of Africa's largest population-based prospective cohorts from rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, to measure the spatial variations in the prevalence of recently-diagnosed TB disease, and to quantify the impact of community coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on recently-diagnosed TB disease. We collected data on TB disease episodes from a population-based sample of 41,812 adult individuals between 2009 and 2015. Spatial clusters ('hotspots') of recently-diagnosed TB were identified using a space-time scan statistic. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to investigate the relationship between community ART coverage and recently-diagnosed TB. Spatial clusters of recently-diagnosed TB were identified in a region characterized by a high prevalence of HIV and population movement. Every percentage increase in ART coverage was associated with a 2% decrease in the odds of recently-diagnosed TB (aOR = 0.98, 95% CI:0.97-0.99). We identified for the first time the clear occurrence of recently-diagnosed TB hotspots, and quantified potential benefit of increased community ART coverage in lowering tuberculosis, highlighting the need to prioritize the expansion of such effective population interventions targeting high-risk areas.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Anti-Retroviral Agents / administration & dosage*
  • Anti-Retroviral Agents / therapeutic use
  • Drug Utilization / statistics & numerical data*
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / drug therapy
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prevalence
  • Rural Population / statistics & numerical data
  • South Africa
  • Spatio-Temporal Analysis
  • Tuberculosis / diagnosis
  • Tuberculosis / epidemiology*

Substances

  • Anti-Retroviral Agents