Aims/introduction: This longitudinal study aimed to explore whether distinct developmental trajectories of body mass index (BMI) would be predictive of diabetes risk in general Chinese adults.
Materials and methods: A total of 4,519 participants aged >18 years who were free of diabetes in 2011 (baseline of the current analysis) were enrolled in this study. All participants completed a medical examination every year during 2011-2016, and BMI levels were measured two to six (average 5.6) times. Group-based trajectory modeling was applied to identify BMI trajectories over time. New-onset diabetes was confirmed in 2016.
Results: During 2011-2016, four distinct BMI trajectories were identified according to BMI range and changing pattern over time: "low" (19.6%), "moderate" (33.4%), "moderate-high" (33.4%) and "high" (13.6%). A total of 168 (3.7%) new-onset diabetes cases were confirmed in 2016. Compared with the "low" BMI trajectory, participants in the "high" BMI trajectory were at significantly higher risk for new-onset diabetes (adjusted relative risk 3.24, 95% confidence interval 1.27-8.24). Notably, BMI trajectories based on the first four or three annual BMI tests yielded similar results. By contrast, no significant correlation was found between categories of baseline BMI and new-onset diabetes in 2016 after multivariate adjustment.
Conclusions: The present results show that distinct BMI trajectories, even identified using just four or three annual BMI tests, are significantly associated with new-onset diabetes. Monitoring BMI trajectories over time might provide an important approach to identify subpopulations at higher risk for developing diabetes.
Keywords: Body mass index; Diabetes; Trajectory.
© 2019 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes Investigation published by Asian Association for the Study of Diabetes (AASD) and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.