Dynamic prediction of the risk of a clinical event using longitudinally measured biomarkers or other prognostic information is important in clinical practice. We propose a new class of landmark survival models. The model takes the form of a linear transformation model, but allows all the model parameters to vary with the landmark time. This model includes many published landmark prediction models as special cases. We propose a unified local linear estimation framework to estimate time-varying model parameters. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed method. We apply the methodology to a dataset from the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension and predict individual patient's risk of an adverse clinical event.
Keywords: Chronic kidney disease; Local-linear estimation; Longitudinal biomarkers; Real-time prediction; Survival analysis.