Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome caused by Seoul hantavirus

Yidan Li; Bernard Cazelles; Guoqing Yang; Marko Laine; Zheng X Y Huang; Jun Cai; Hua Tan; Nils Chr Stenseth; Huaiyu Tian

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007757

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome caused by Seoul hantavirus

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2019 Sep 23;13(9):e0007757. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007757. eCollection 2019 Sep.

Authors

Yidan Li¹, Bernard Cazelles^{2

3}, Guoqing Yang⁴, Marko Laine⁵, Zheng X Y Huang⁶, Jun Cai⁷, Hua Tan⁸, Nils Chr Stenseth^{9

10}, Huaiyu Tian¹

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
² IBENS, UMR 8197 CNRS-ENS Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France.
³ International Center for Mathematical and Computational Modeling of Complex Systems (UMMISCO), IRD-Sorbonne Université, Bondy, France.
⁴ Huludao Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Huludao, Liaoning, China.
⁵ Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
⁶ College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China.
⁷ Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
⁸ School of Biomedical Informatics, the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas, United States of America.
⁹ Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, Oslo, Norway.
¹⁰ Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.

Abstract

Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) has recently raised concern by causing geographic range expansion of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). SEOV infections in humans are significantly underestimated worldwide and epidemic dynamics of SEOV-related HFRS are poorly understood because of a lack of field data and empirically validated models. Here, we use mathematical models to examine both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of disease transmission from animal (the Norway rat) to humans in a SEOV-endemic area in China. We found that rat eradication schemes and vaccination campaigns, but below the local elimination threshold, could diminish the amplitude of the HFRS epidemic but did not modify its seasonality. Models demonstrate population dynamics of the rodent host were insensitive to climate variations in urban settings, while relative humidity had a negative effect on the seasonality in transmission. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of SEOV-related HFRS, demonstrates asynchronies between rodent population dynamics and transmission rate, and identifies potential drivers of the SEOV seasonality.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Animals
China / epidemiology
Cities
Climate
Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / epidemiology*
Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / prevention & control
Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / transmission*
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Rodent Control
Rodentia / virology
Seasons
Seoul virus
Vaccination

Grants and funding

Funding has been provided by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (JQ18025), (http://kw.beijing.gov.cn/jjb/); Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science, (jw.beijing.gov.cn); National Natural Science Foundation of China (81673234, 31870400), (http://www.nsfc.gov.cn/); the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600104), (http://www.most.gov.cn/); Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by CAST (YESS) (2018QNRC001) (http://www.cast.org.cn/), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (http://www.moe.edu.cn/) and Academician Xu Jian-guo Work Station (2018IC155). H.T. acknowledges support from the Oxford Martin School. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.