Background: Human reproduction follows a seasonal pattern with respect to spontaneous conception, a phenomenon wherein the effect of meteorological fluctuations might not be unique. However, the effect of seasonal variations on patients who underwent in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological variation on the pregnancy rate in a cohort undergoing IVF treatment by performing multivariable analyses.
Methods: We conducted a cohort study in a sub-tropical region with prominent seasonal variations (2005-2016). Women aged < 35 years who were treated with a long ovarian stimulation protocol and underwent fresh embryo transfer (ER) were included. Data on gonadotropin administration (CYCL), oocyte retrieval (OR), ER, and pregnancy outcomes were prospectively recorded. For each patient, the daily average of meteorological data (temperature, humidity, sunlight duration, solar radiation) was recorded from the date of CYCL to ER. Multiple logistic regression analysis adjusted for age, fertilization method, year of the cycle, gonadotropin dose, and transferred embryo grade was performed to determine the relationship between the meteorological parameters and clinical pregnancy. Patients with one successful cycle and one failed cycle were subtracted for a case-control subgroup analysis through mixed effect logistics regressions. Time-series analysis of data in the epidemic level was conducted using the distributed lag linear and non-linear models (DLNMs).
Results: There were 1029 fresh cycles in 860 women (mean age 31.9 ± 2.0 years). Higher mean temperature from CYCL to OR (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.07, P = 0.01) increased the odds of pregnancy, while OR to ER did not show any statistical significance. Compared to that in winter, the odds of becoming pregnant were higher during higher temperature seasons, summer and autumn (aOR 1.47, 95%CI 0.97-2.23, P = 0.07 (marginally significant) and aOR 1.73, 95%CI 1.12-2.68, P = 0.02, respectively). Humidity, sunlight duration, and solar radiation had no effect on the outcome. The subgroup analysis confirmed this finding. The time-series analysis revealed a positive association between temperature and relative risk for pregnancy.
Conclusions: In IVF treatment, the ambient temperature variation alters the pregnancy rates; this aspect must be considered when obtaining patient consent for assisted conception.
Keywords: IVF; Long ovarian protocol; Pregnancy rate; Seasonality; Temperature.