Aims: Some hypoglycemic therapies are associated with lower risk of cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated the incidence of cardiovascular disease among patients with type 2 diabetes using antidiabetic drugs from three classes, which were sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4is).Materials and methods: We compared the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) among these drugs and developed a machine learning model for predicting MI in patients without prior heart disease. We analyzed US health plan data for patients without prior MI or insulin therapy who were aged ≥40 years at initial prescription and had not received oral antidiabetic drugs for ≥6 months previously. After developing a machine learning model to predict MI, proportional hazards analysis of MI incidence was conducted using the risk obtained with this model and the drug classes as explanatory variables.Results: We analyzed 199,116 patients (mean age: years), comprising 110,278 (58.6) prescribed DPP-4is, 43,538 (55.1) prescribed GLP-1RAs and 45,300 (55.3) prescribed SGLT-2is. Receiver operating characteristics analysis showed higher precision of machine learning over logistic regression analysis. Proportional hazards analysis by machine learning revealed a significantly lower risk of MI with SGLT-2is or GLP-1RAs than DPP-4is (hazard ratio: 0.81, 95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.91, p = .0004 vs. 0.63, 0.56-0.72, p < .0001). MI risk was also significantly lower with GLP-1RAs than SGLT-2is (0.77, 0.66-0.90, p = .001).Limitations: All patients analyzed were covered by US commercial health plans, so information on patients aged ≥65 years was limited and the socioeconomic background may have been biased. Also, the observation period differed among the three classes of drugs due to differing release dates.Conclusions: Machine learning analysis suggested the risk of MI was 37% lower for type 2 diabetes patients without prior MI using GLP-1RAs versus DPP-4is, while the risk was 19% lower for SGLT-2is versus DPP-4is.
Keywords: Cardiovascular disease; machine learning; myocardial infarction; oral antidiabetic drugs; type 2 diabetes.