A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action

Qianying Lin; Shi Zhao; Daozhou Gao; Yijun Lou; Shu Yang; Salihu S Musa; Maggie H Wang; Yongli Cai; Weiming Wang; Lin Yang; Daihai He

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058

A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action

Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Apr:93:211-216. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058. Epub 2020 Mar 4.

Authors

Qianying Lin¹, Shi Zhao², Daozhou Gao³, Yijun Lou⁴, Shu Yang⁵, Salihu S Musa⁶, Maggie H Wang⁷, Yongli Cai⁸, Weiming Wang⁹, Lin Yang¹⁰, Daihai He¹¹

Affiliations

¹ Michigan Institute for Data Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. Electronic address: qianying@umich.edu.
² JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: shi.zhao@link.cuhk.edu.hk.
³ Mathematics and Science College, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China. Electronic address: dzgao@shnu.edu.cn.
⁴ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: yijun.lou@polyu.edu.hk.
⁵ College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China. Electronic address: sishiyu1978@qq.com.
⁶ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: salihu-sabiu.musa@connect.polyu.hk.
⁷ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: maggiew@cuhk.edu.hk.
⁸ School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai'an, China. Electronic address: yonglicai@hytc.edu.cn.
⁹ School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai'an, China. Electronic address: weimingwang2003@163.com.
¹⁰ School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: l.yang@polyu.edu.hk.
¹¹ Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: daihai.he@polyu.edu.hk.

Abstract

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.

Keywords: COVID-19; City lockdown; Epidemic; Governmental action; Individual reaction; Mathematical modelling.

MeSH terms

Betacoronavirus
COVID-19
China / epidemiology
Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
Disease Outbreaks*
Government
Government Regulation
Humans
Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919 / statistics & numerical data
Models, Biological*
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
Public Health / legislation & jurisprudence*
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Travel / legislation & jurisprudence
United Kingdom / epidemiology