Aim To quantify the global incidence and mortality of adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) and forecast the possible emerging trends of AEMT. Materials and methods We analyzed the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. We describe the burden of AEMT based on age- and region-specific incidence and mortality rates between 1990 and 2017. Additionally, we evaluated the change of burden due to AEMT by different periods between 1990 and 2017, and compared the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates among different World Health Organization (WHO) regions. Results Globally, AEMT incidence rates varied across WHO regions and countries. The estimated age-standardized average incidence rates of AEMT were 309 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 270 to 351], 340 (298 to 384), 401 (348 to 458), and 439 (376 to 505) per 100,000 population across the world in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2017, respectively, showing an increasing trend in the new occurrence of adverse events. The incidence rate among women (469/100,000) was higher compared to men (409/100,000) in 2017. Between 1990 and 2017, we observed an upward trend in the incidence rates of AEMT across global regions, with a substantial increase in the incidence by 42% (27 to 57) between the years 1990 and 2017, translated to an annualized rate of incline of 1.5%. In the age group of 60-64 years, the incidence rates increased by 96% in 2017 compared to 1990. The global incidence rate due to AEMT is forecasted to increase to 446.94 (433.65 to 460.22) by 2020, 478.49 (376.88 to 580.09) in 2030, and to reach 510.03 (276.58 to 743.49) per 100,000 by 2040. We observed a decline in mortality rates due to AEMT across global regions, and the annualized rate of mortality change was -0.90 percentage points between 1990 and 2017. Overall, the AEMT mortality rate was higher in men (1.73/100,000) than in women (1.48/100,000), and age-specific mortality rates showed a bimodal increase between the age group of birth to one year, and an increase in the age group of 65 years and above. The global mortality rate due to AEMT is expected to be 1.55 (1.48 to 1.61) in 2020, 1.37 (0.88 to 1.86 ) in 2030 and 1.2 deaths per 100,000 (0.08 to 2.32) by 2040. Conclusion Using the GBD 2017 study data, we found an increase in the incidence of AEMT, and an overall decrease in the mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, with varying estimates between different countries and regions, gender and age groups. The forecast analysis displayed the same trends - an increase in AEMT incidence and a decline in mortality between 2020 and 2040. The high burden of AEMT warrants the implementation of robust policies in the healthcare system including appropriate patient safety training for the healthcare professionals, and safe culture of feedback with the implementation of electronic medical records to achieve WHO patient safety strategy goals.
Keywords: adverse events; complication of treatment; global burden; global health; health care system; health policy; medical errors; patient safety; public health; side effects of medical treatment.
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