Potential short-term outcome of an uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic in Lombardy, Italy, February to March 2020

Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(12):2000293. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000293.

Abstract

Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717-459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250-67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Lombardy outbreak; SARS-CoV-2; modelling.

MeSH terms

  • Betacoronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Coronavirus*
  • Disease Notification / statistics & numerical data*
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Humans
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Pandemics
  • Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology*
  • Pneumonia, Viral / transmission
  • SARS-CoV-2