The role of meteorological factors on mumps incidence among children in Guangzhou, Southern China

PLoS One. 2020 Apr 29;15(4):e0232273. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232273. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Mumps, a common childhood disease, has a high incidence in Guangzhou city, China. It has been proven that mumps is influenced by seasonality. However, the role of meteorological factors among children is yet to be fully ascertained. This study explored the association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps among children in Guangzhou. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to evaluate the correlation between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps among children from 2014-2018. The nonlinear lag effects of some meteorological factors were detected. Mean temperature, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity were positively correlated with mumps incidence, contrary to that of wind speed. Extreme effects of temperature, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and relative humidity on the incidence of mumps among children in Guangzhou were evaluated in a subgroup analysis according to gender and age. Our preliminary results offered fundamental information to better understand the epidemic trends of mumps among children to develop an early warning system, and strengthen the intervention and prevention of mumps.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Atmospheric Pressure
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • China / epidemiology
  • Cities / epidemiology
  • Epidemics / prevention & control
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Humidity
  • Incidence
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Meteorological Concepts
  • Mumps / epidemiology*
  • Mumps / prevention & control
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Seasons
  • Temperature
  • Wind

Grants and funding

This study was supported by the Medical Health Technology Project for Guangzhou (20181A011051) and the Science and Technology Project of Guangzhou (201804010093) and the Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality (2017-2019-07).