Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths

Thibaut Jombart; Kevin van Zandvoort; Timothy W Russell; Christopher I Jarvis; Amy Gimma; Sam Abbott; Sam Clifford; Sebastian Funk; Hamish Gibbs; Yang Liu; Carl A B Pearson; Nikos I Bosse; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group; Rosalind M Eggo; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds

doi:10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1

Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths

Wellcome Open Res. 2020 Apr 27:5:78. doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1. eCollection 2020.

Authors

Thibaut Jombart^{1

2

3}, Kevin van Zandvoort¹, Timothy W Russell¹, Christopher I Jarvis¹, Amy Gimma¹, Sam Abbott¹, Sam Clifford¹, Sebastian Funk¹, Hamish Gibbs¹, Yang Liu¹, Carl A B Pearson^{1

4}, Nikos I Bosse¹; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group; Rosalind M Eggo¹, Adam J Kucharski¹, W John Edmunds¹

Affiliations

¹ Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
² UK Public Health Rapid Support Team, London, UK.
³ MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
⁴ South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.

Abstract

We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.

Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; covid-19; epidemics; estimation; modelling; outbreak; statistics.

Abstract

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