Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic

Julian Peto; James Carpenter; George Davey Smith; Stephen Duffy; Richard Houlston; David J Hunter; Klim McPherson; Neil Pearce; Paul Romer; Peter Sasieni; Clare Turnbull

doi:10.1098/rsos.200915

Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic

R Soc Open Sci. 2020 Jun 24;7(6):200915. doi: 10.1098/rsos.200915. eCollection 2020 Jun.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
² Bristol Population Health Science Institute, Bristol University, Bristol, UK.
³ Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
⁴ Division of Genetics and Epidemiology, Institute of Cancer Research, London, UK.
⁵ Nuffield Department of Population Health, Oxford University, Oxford, UK.
⁶ New College, Oxford University, Oxford, UK.
⁷ Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, USA.
⁸ School of Cancer and Pharmaceutical Sciences, King's College London, London, UK.

Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local reintroduction of population testing or lockdown. Leading public health experts have recommended that this should be tried in a demonstration project in which a medium-sized city introduces weekly testing and lifts lockdown completely. The idea was not considered by the groups whose predictions have guided UK policy, so we have examined the statistical case for such a study. The combination of regular testing with strict household quarantine, which was not analysed in their models, has remarkable power to reduce transmission to the community from other household members as well as providing earlier diagnosis and facilitating rapid contact tracing.

Keywords: COVID-19; quarantine; screening.

Abstract

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